On May 22, 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season during a news conference in Gretna, Louisiana. The agency anticipates an above-normal season, with increased storm activity expected in the Atlantic Basin.
Forecast Overview
NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The forecast includes:
- 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
These projections exceed the 1991–2020 average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes per season. The season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.
Contributing Factors
Several factors contribute to the heightened activity forecasted for the 2025 season:
- Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures: Elevated ocean temperatures provide more energy for storm development.
- Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist, which typically favor increased Atlantic hurricane activity.
- Weak Wind Shear: Reduced vertical wind shear allows storms to develop and intensify more easily.
- Enhanced West African Monsoon: A stronger monsoon can lead to more frequent tropical waves, which are precursors to hurricanes.
These conditions are similar to those observed during the 2024 season, which was notably active and caused significant damage.
Preparedness and Public Safety
NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparedness, urging residents in hurricane-prone areas to review and update their emergency plans. The agency has improved forecasting models and extended lead times for warnings to enhance public safety. Additionally, NOAA has refined its storm surge and inland flooding maps to provide more accurate information to communities.
Outlook from Other Forecasters
Independent forecasts align with NOAA’s predictions. Colorado State University anticipates 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. AccuWeather predicts 13 to 18 named storms, with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane status.
Conclusion
With the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s outlook indicates a higher-than-average likelihood of storm activity. Coastal residents are advised to prepare in advance and stay informed through official channels as the season progresses.
