As the U.S. Supreme Court approaches the end of its term, several high-profile cases are poised to deliver decisions that could significantly impact American society and law. Among the most closely watched are cases concerning gender-affirming care for minors, state-level firearm regulations, and the role of religious expression in publicly funded education. These rulings are expected to be announced by the end of June 2025.
Gender-Affirming Care for Minors
In United States v. Skrmetti, the Court is evaluating the constitutionality of Tennessee’s law banning gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender minors. The law, enacted in 2023, prohibits healthcare providers from offering puberty blockers, hormone therapy, or surgical procedures to individuals under 18. Proponents argue the law protects children from irreversible decisions, while opponents contend it infringes on parental rights and discriminates against transgender youth.
Chase Strangio, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union and the first openly transgender person to argue before the Supreme Court, represents the challengers. Strangio emphasizes that gender-affirming care is essential for the mental health and well-being of transgender youth, citing medical consensus on its benefits. The case’s outcome could influence similar laws in over 20 states that have enacted comparable bans.
Second Amendment and State Firearm Regulations
The Court is also addressing challenges to state-level firearm regulations, particularly bans on assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines. In recent weeks, the justices declined to hear appeals against Maryland’s ban on semiautomatic rifles and Rhode Island’s restriction on magazines holding more than ten rounds, effectively allowing these laws to remain in place. However, dissenting opinions from Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch suggest ongoing debates within the Court regarding the scope of the Second Amendment.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh, while concurring with the decision not to hear the cases, expressed concerns about the lower courts’ reasoning and indicated that the Court might revisit the issue in the future. These developments come amid a broader national conversation about gun rights and public safety, especially in the wake of mass shootings and evolving interpretations of the Second Amendment.
Religious Expression in Public Education
In a notable case concerning the intersection of religion and public education, the Supreme Court reached a 4-4 deadlock in Oklahoma Statewide Charter School Board v. Drummond. The case involved a proposal to establish St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School as the nation’s first taxpayer-funded religious charter school. The tie vote, resulting from Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s recusal due to prior affiliations, left the Oklahoma Supreme Court’s decision intact, which held that the school’s establishment would violate the First Amendment’s Establishment Clause.
This outcome maintains the current legal stance that public funds cannot be used to support religious instruction in public schools. However, the close decision and the Court’s recent trend of expanding religious liberties suggest that similar cases may arise, potentially leading to a definitive ruling in the future.
Public Perception and Political Implications
These cases arrive at a time when the Supreme Court’s impartiality is under scrutiny. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that only 20% of Americans view the Court as politically neutral, with perceptions of bias particularly pronounced among Democrats. The Court’s decisions on these contentious issues are likely to influence public opinion and could have ramifications for the 2026 midterm elections, as debates over civil rights, public safety, and religious freedoms continue to shape the national discourse.
